Rainraker started from a simple observation: prediction markets don't always price in what the data actually says. We built a quantitative forecasting model to test that gap — scoring markets city by city and comparing our model's read against the crowd's price.
Right now the model runs daily on temperature markets: it pulls live
forecast data, scores the likelihood of each outcome, and compares that
against market price. Everything above is dry-run — no live capital
deployed, this is the model proving itself against real markets before
anything real is on the line.
If the edge holds up, the long-term goal is to bring real
capital into this systematically — but that's a decision for later,
not today.